Recent policy changes in the US are sending major shockwaves through international education, and students are reacting.
At a recent ICEF Webinar on June 11, 2025, Keystone Education Group shared real-time insights into how international students are responding to policy changes - offering crucial data for institutions striving to adapt and thrive.
The webinar, hosted by Martijn van de Veen (ICEF), and featuring Dr Fanta Aw (NAFSA), Saqr Alkharabsheh (The Oval Office for Studies and Research), Jessica Sandberg (IDP), Fredrik Högemark (Keystone Education Group), Hanks Han (Bright Can-Achieve Limited), and Edwin van Rest (Studyportals) - aimed to provide a real-time, data-driven assessment of the US as a study destination, explore the evolving impact of the new administration’s policies on international education, analyze potential effects on the upcoming fall intake, and differentiate fact from fiction with the latest insights.
Our insights are based on search behavior data from our websites and recent survey data from thousands of students, collected in May and June 2025. Through the data we can observe shifts in student behavior, plus understand the underlying sentiment driving those changes.
Here's a breakdown of the key takeaways for understanding and navigating this dynamic environment:
Our data shows a significant decline in international student interest in the US, especially at the Master's level. Analyzing in-year and year-over-year trends reveals a sharp downturn since the 2024 election and subsequent policy announcements.
Keystone's monthly pulse survey, with 8,000 respondents, and insights from 5 million student searches per month across our platforms, paint a clear picture: there has been a -52% decline in student interest between May 2024 and May 2025. This highlights how incredibly responsive international students are to government policy.
Based on active search behavior on Keystone websites, interest in the US has consistently trended downwards since the election. While there was a partial recovery heading into March, even sharper drops occurred in April and May.
This pattern strongly correlates with Trump’s policy announcements, with the most significant declines following actions on education funding and visa issuance.
This has led to a significant number of students considering other destinations - many now pivoting towards the UK, Europe, and increasingly, parts of Asia.
"Universities have to be very deliberate in their communication and in their outreach. They cannot do enough of it."
- Dr Fanta Aw
Recent policy disruptions have created a challenging visa landscape for students. As of mid-June 2025, US embassies and consulates have paused nearly all new student visa interviews globally.
This freeze has left tens of thousands of applicants in limbo. Compounding this, a new US travel ban affecting 12 countries, including those with significant student populations like Iran and Sudan, has blocked new visa issuance and re-entry.
These developments have created a significant bottleneck. Students with scheduled appointments are seeing them canceled or postponed indefinitely.
According to Keystone data, students are already reacting to the US administration’s actions on international student visas. However, they are more likely to defer their studies than to abandon their plans altogether.
This suggests that, while current policies clearly impact them, they aren’t doing irrecoverable damage to the overall appeal of the US as a study destination. This also implies that "wavering" students may be highly receptive to reassurance and support from institutions.
It's also important to note that policies and announcements on visas and funding remain more impactful than the election of Trump himself on student decisions.
Furthermore, our data indicates that funding cuts are slightly more impactful than visa revocation. This possibly points to a longer-term, 'structural' concern about the affordability and value of US education, rather than just a shorter-term concern about access.
The perception of the US as a welcoming destination for international students has seen a dramatic shift. Our survey data indicates that approximately 42% of international students are now less likely to consider studying in the US following the recent uncertainty around visa restrictions.
Keystone’s ongoing survey data reveals a steady post-election shift in how welcoming the USA is perceived to be as a study destination. Only 7% of prospective students regarded the USA as ‘unwelcoming’ in October, compared to a significant 17% in May.
Similarly, almost three-quarters of respondents thought the US was ‘welcoming’ in October, versus less than two-thirds in May. As with other data, negative sentiment has spiked alongside policy announcements.
In response to these challenges, international students are actively exploring alternative pathways to a US degree. Interest in online delivery of a US degree amongst prospective international students has grown steadily since the election in November.
The biggest spikes came in April and May, correlating with the administration’s most challenging policy announcements. This suggests students who remain interested in the US are increasingly likely to consider alternative ways to access a US degree.
TNE is no longer a fringe model – it's rapidly becoming mainstream. Our data collected in June 2025 reveals that 37% of students would pursue a US degree via a transnational campus, with an additional 30% open to the idea.
While most students still aspire to study in the US in person, online learning and TNE programs are serving as crucial stepping stones. These alternatives allow students to obtain a highly sought-after US degree while navigating a challenging period, potentially enabling them to continue their education on US soil once visa challenges are resolved.
The insights from the ICEF Webinar are a critical call to action. Institutions must adapt rapidly to these evolving student mobility patterns. This means:
By understanding where interest is growing and why, universities can strategically adjust their recruitment efforts and program offerings to secure the success of future generations.